The Miami Heat dismantled the Chicago Bulls 143-107 on Friday, November 21, 2025, at the United Center in a dominant performance that turned heads — and left bettors reeling. What started as a tightly analyzed player prop showdown ended as a lopsided rout, exposing gaps in even the most confident betting models. The game, part of the NBA Cup Group PlayChicago, wasn’t just about who won. It was about why so many projections got it wrong — especially when it came to Bam Adebayo.
Why Adebayo’s Assist Prop Was a Trap
Before tip-off, sportsbooks offered Bam Adebayo at 3.5 assists with +100 odds for the over. Analysts at Action Network had flagged this as a potential trap. "His teammates are making shots at a 15% higher rate on his potential assists," wrote their analyst, "but his actual assist rate is down." The projection? Around 3.2 assists — barely under the line. Most bettors assumed his role as the Heat’s playmaking hub would push him over. But he finished with just 2 assists in 34 minutes.It wasn’t a fluke. Adebayo’s season average in games over 30 minutes? 3.3 assists. But the context matters: Miami’s offense runs through Norman Powell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. when Adebayo’s on the floor. He’s becoming a finisher, not a facilitator. The line was set based on past trends, not current tendencies. And that’s where the edge disappeared.
The Bulls’ Quiet Stars and the One Who Broke the Mold
While the Heat’s offense exploded — 143 points is the highest single-game total in NBA Cup history — Chicago’s scoring was spread thin. Nikola Vucevic delivered as expected: 12 rebounds, 20 points, and 4 assists. His 10.5 rebound prop (+105) was a winner. But his 3.5 assist line? He cleared it easily. The real surprise? Coby White.PreGame.com had recommended an OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS/ASSISTS prop at -120. White finished with 24 points, 8 assists, and 5 rebounds. Total? 37. That’s 29.5 above the line. He was the only Bull to consistently impact both ends. Even his 19.5-point prop (+108) was hit with room to spare. Yet, the market barely reacted. Why? Because analysts were fixated on Vucevic and Josh Giddey — and forgot White thrives in pace-heavy games like this one.
Heat’s Depth Outshone Chicago’s Star Power
Miami didn’t need one hero. They had five. Norman Powell went 7-for-11 from deep — crushing his 3.5 three-pointer prop (+110). Jamie Jaquez Jr. dropped 21 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists — blowing past his 5.5 assist line (-123). Even Kel'el Ware, the rookie center, dominated the glass with 11 rebounds (over his 9.5 line) and 14 points. The Heat’s bench outscored Chicago’s 52-28.Meanwhile, Josh Giddey — the Bulls’ presumed engine — managed just 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists. His 9.5 rebound prop (-128) was close, but his 9.5 assist line? He never came close. The market overestimated his playmaking in a system that didn’t feed him enough touches. He was passive. And in a game where pace was high, that cost Chicago dearly.
What the Analysts Got Right — and Wrong
The Action Network analysts who tracked 53-60-0 over 30 days weren’t wrong. They just weren’t fast enough. Their model flagged Adebayo’s assist decline — correct. But they didn’t account for how Miami’s offensive explosion would reduce his need to create. Meanwhile, the 39-50-0 analyst? They were chasing high-variance props like Vucevic’s three-pointers. He went 0-for-4 from deep. That loss was inevitable.PreGame.com’s Coby White prop was the only one that nailed both the player and the context. The Bulls were playing at a blistering pace. White’s minutes were steady. His PRA (points + rebounds + assists) had been over 30 in both games this season. The line was 7.5. He hit 37. That’s not luck. That’s reading the game.
The Ripple Effect: What This Means for the NBA Cup
Miami’s win pushes them to the top of Group D. The Bulls? They’re now 1-2 in the Cup, with a must-win against the Nets on Monday. But more than standings, this game exposed a flaw in how sportsbooks set props. They’re still using season averages, not recent trends. Adebayo’s assist numbers have been dropping for three weeks. Vucevic’s three-point attempts? Down 40% since October. Yet the lines didn’t adjust.This isn’t just about betting. It’s about how data is interpreted. The Heat didn’t win because they had more talent. They won because they played faster, smarter, and with more cohesion. The Bulls? They relied on individual brilliance — and it evaporated under pressure.
What’s Next?
The NBA Cup’s group stage ends in five days. Miami’s next game is at home against the Pistons — a likely win. Chicago? They face the Nets in a do-or-die matchup. If they lose, they’re out. And if they win? They’ll need to find a way to get White the ball early — and stop letting Giddey disappear.For bettors? Watch the pace. Watch the usage. And forget the season averages. The real story isn’t in the stats — it’s in the flow.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bam Adebayo’s assist prop miss despite his season average being close to 3.5?
Adebayo’s assist rate has dropped sharply in the last month as Miami shifted to a more perimeter-heavy offense. He’s averaging 3.3 assists in games over 30 minutes, but his teammates are shooting 15% better on his potential passes — meaning he’s not creating as much as he used to. The line didn’t adjust for this trend, making the under the smarter play.
Was Coby White’s OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS/ASSISTS prop a risky bet?
Not really. White had posted over 30 PRA in both games this season, and the Bulls were playing at the third-fastest pace in the league. His minutes were stable, and Miami’s defense leaves guards open. The -120 odds were fair for a player with consistent floor production and a favorable matchup. He delivered 37 — far beyond the line.
How did Norman Powell’s three-point prop perform so well?
Powell had been shooting 42% from deep over his last seven games, and Chicago’s perimeter defense was porous. His 3.5 three-pointer line was set at +110, but he took 11 attempts and made 7 — his highest total since October. The line underestimated his role as Miami’s primary shooter when Jimmy Butler is off the floor.
Why did the Bulls lose despite Nikola Vucevic’s strong stat line?
Vucevic had 20 points and 12 rebounds — a solid performance. But the Bulls had no secondary scoring. Giddey was quiet, White was the only consistent threat, and the bench scored just 28 points. Miami’s depth — especially Ware and Powell — overwhelmed Chicago’s reliance on one star. In a high-scoring game, that’s a death sentence.
What does this game mean for future NBA Cup prop betting?
It proves that recent trends matter more than season averages. Adebayo’s assist drop, White’s PRA consistency, Powell’s shooting surge — these were all visible in the last two weeks. Bookmakers still rely on outdated data. Savvy bettors should track 7-10 day trends, not 20-game averages, especially in tournament play where roles shift fast.
Will the Heat’s offensive explosion continue in the next round?
Probably. Miami’s top five scorers averaged 18+ points in this game, and their ball movement was elite. They’ve scored 140+ in two of their last three games. If their defense holds up — and they’ve allowed just 105.2 PPG in the Cup — they’re one of the favorites to win the tournament. Their next opponent, the Pistons, have the league’s worst defensive rating.
